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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to submit the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, especially given the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to journalists. He clarified that these assurances would “reflect article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to place boots on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would serve as assurances equivalent to Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Moscow is near agreeing to the type of package under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not seen the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the territorial question. One proposal centers on Kyiv ceding the areas of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russian troops would not advance, with the resulting zone becoming “a free economic zone.” Moscow has indicated it could use internal security formations instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.